Dear Students and Colleagues,
This is to remind you that next Wednesday, 06.06.2018, our speaker, Prof. Dr. Alejandra Stehr, Director at EULA Center, will present a talk titled, „Assessment of farmers’ vulnerability to climate change at river basin scale: an integrated modeling approach“.
The talk will take place at 6 pm in conference room LD Building C IV 266.
Abstract: Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change, specifically those related with expected changes in water availability. By using a hydro-economic model, this study assesses farmers’ economic responses to climate change and identifies autonomous adaptation options available for different farming communities within the Vergara river watershed in Chile. Water availability of the watershed at a subbasin scale is obtained using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model (SWAT), while farmers’ economic responses are represented using a non-linear agricultural supply model. A reduction in both water endowment—by perturbing the hydrologic model with a regionalized climate change scenario— and agricultural yields are simulated, in order to assess the behavior of farmers’ communities. At the aggregated level relatively small impacts were found, consistent with the impacts among both farmer’s communities and agricultural activities. The water policy showed to be effective to reduce those impacts, but results suggest the existence of unwanted effects on rainfed agriculture, as in some communities the level of income decreases when the policy is implemented.